![]() But technically, the current bull market is "on probation" until it closes above its January 26 high. This seems like nit-picking after the market briefly set a new all-time high during yesterday’s session. If we’re throwing out the -19.39% decline over 157 days in 2011, shouldn’t we also throw out the -19.92% decline over 87 days in 1990? If so, that legendary "1990s bull market" actually started in late 1987, meaning the current bull market is still about 3 years short of breaking the all-time record! * #2: Is this still a bull market? That start followed a drop of -19.92% between July-October of 1990. No problem - it didn’t reach 20%, so it doesn’t count.Īh, but wait! The reigning "longest bull market" that is allegedly being unseated is dated as having begun in October 1990. In order to count the current bull market as being uninterrupted since its start in March 2009, we have to not count the -19.39% drop in the S&P 500 that occurred between April-October 2011. And there’s a bit of cherry-picking going on in terms of which of these are counted as bear markets and which aren’t. The main problem with the "oldest bull market" argument is that there have been multiple market declines through the years that came up just short of 20%. And the end of a bull market (i.e., a bear market) is commonly defined as a drop of -20% from a prior high. The common definition of the start of a bull market is when a market advances at least 20% off a prior low. To understand why this isn’t a cut-and-dried case, we have to establish what parameters we’re using to define bull markets. The only question is whether it’s truly the oldest. That is, any way you slice it, this bull market is old. Which brings us to the second important point before delving into whether the current bull is really the longest in history. First, and most importantly, bull markets don’t die of old age! "Typically, they die of fright," says veteran market strategist Sam Stovall, "And what they’re most afraid of is recession." With no signs of a recession on the horizon, there appears to be little risk of this bull market petering out simply because it’s old. At 3,453 days old, it officially passes the previous record set by the bull that ran from October 1990 to March 2000.Įxcept that the new record carries a couple of asterisks (see below).įirst though, it’s important to recognize that this doesn’t really matter either way, for a couple of reasons. Today the stock market is being widely celebrated for having set a new record as the longest bull market in history.
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